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15.07.2025 at 20:25:37 UTC

Type	Jul 15	Jul 16	Jul 17
Active	25%	20%	20%
Minor	40%	5%	5%
Moderate	15%	1%	1%
Strong	1%	1%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	4.67	2.67	2.00
03-06UT	3.33	3.00	2.00
06-09UT	2.67	2.67	2.33
09-12UT	2.33	2.33	2.33
12-15UT	2.33	2.33	2.00
15-18UT	2.00	2.00	2.33
18-21UT	3.00	1.00	2.00
21-00UT	2.67	2.33	2.00
Solar Activity
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C4.5 at 14/1706 UTC from Region 4141 (S13, L=112) which rotated around the SW limb on 14 Jul. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4139 (N22W23, Dai/beta), 4142 (N01E42, Csi/beta), and 4143 (N23E08, Cro/beta). The remaining spot groups were either stable or slightly decaying. New Region 4144 (S15E69, Hsx/alpha) was numbered.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 500 km/s to around 600-750 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-11 nT while the Bz component was between +/-9 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,230 pfu at 14/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.