The Chip Witch Blog

16.06.2025 at 15:38:02 UTC

Type	Jun 16	Jun 17	Jun 18
Active	35%	40%	25%
Minor	35%	20%	15%
Moderate	10%	10%	5%
Strong	1%	1%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	3.33	4.00	2.67
03-06UT	2.67	3.67	2.00
06-09UT	2.33	3.33	2.33
09-12UT	2.00	3.00	2.33
12-15UT	2.00	2.33	2.33
15-18UT	3.00	2.33	2.33
18-21UT	3.67	2.00	2.33
21-00UT	4.67	3.00	2.67
Solar Activity
Solar activity reached high levels due to multiple M-class flares. Region 4105 (S14, L=131) produced a C6.5/Sf flare at 16/0148 UTC with an associated Type II sweep (962 km/s) and a CME off the W limb. Subsequent modelling showed no Earth-directed component. Region 4114 (N18E06, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M8.4/1b flare at 15/1807 UTC, the largest of the period. Associated with the flare was a Castelli U burst signature, a 630 sfu Tenflare, Type II (397 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps and a CME off the N limb at 15/1824 UTC. CME analyses suggests the bulk of the CME will pass north of the ecliptic, however, it is possible that well see shock passage on 18 Jun. At 16/0938, Region 4114 produced an M6.5/1b with an associated 530 sfu Tenflare.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged from 7-10 nT while the Bz component ranged between +/-7 nT. Solar wind speed was elevated between about 400 - 530 km/s. Phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.