The Chip Witch Blog

18.07.2025 at 23:40:24 UTC

Type	Jul 19	Jul 20	Jul 21
Active	20%	10%	10%
Minor	5%	1%	1%
Moderate	1%	1%	1%
Strong	1%	1%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	3.00	1.67	1.67
03-06UT	3.00	2.00	2.00
06-09UT	2.67	1.67	1.67
09-12UT	2.67	1.33	1.33
12-15UT	1.67	1.00	0.67
15-18UT	1.67	0.67	1.33
18-21UT	1.00	1.67	1.00
21-00UT	2.00	1.67	1.67
Solar Activity
Solar activity was at low levels with the majority of the low level C-class activity originating from Region 4136 (N21W43, Dkc/beta-delta). The largest flare was a C3.5/Sf at 18/0813 UTC from Region 4136. Slight growth and separation occurred in Region 4136. Slight decay and consolidation occurred in Regions 4143 (N25W31, Eki/beta-gamma). Slight decay was observed in Regions 4139 (N22W61, Dko/beta) and 4142 (N01E02, Dai/beta-gamma). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
Solar Wind
The solar wind environment remained enhanced during the period due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. The total magnetic field strength ranged between 5-8 nT, with the Bz component reaching as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked near 780 km/s around 17/1500 UTC before gradually decreasing in the hours that followed. The phi remained mostly positive throughout the period.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,593 pfu observed at 17/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.